If you have been watching the economic drama unfolding in this country then you have heard terms like “Lost Decade” and “Zombie Banks”. But just what is meant by all this? Let us look at the 1990’s in Japan. A little knowledge of history can go a long way at preventing a totally wasted period in American economic activity.
Beginning in 1991, Japan experienced a financial crisis that has been documented and studied by many. Japan’s crisis was triggered by a real estate and equity price bubble followed by a collapse of equity and real estate prices. But unlike the examples I cited above, Japanese policymakers met the crisis with prolonged denial and then, when conditions forced recognition of the severity of the problem, very halting steps to address it. Banks were not forced to recognize the condition of their balance sheets and were encouraged to continue lending to firms that were themselves unprofitable. Anil Kashyap labels these “zombie firms.”
Zombie banks continued to direct capital to zombie firms. This charade continued for more than a decade, with the result that the once-powerful Japanese economy was completely stagnant for that period. The government’s main response was to dramatically increase spending on infrastructure and frantically try to get Japanese households to save less and consume more. The resulting “lost decade” of economic growth cost Japan more than 20% of GDP.
Does any of this sound familiar? Can you connect the dots? As we wring our hands about getting more involved in the financial sector and saving the jobs in the auto sector, and as we watch the many inefficient industries line up for help, it behooves us to ask: Which of these are zombies? If there is one lesson that seems to leap out at us, it is that, however great the short-term costs, the costs of keeping zombies alive is much greater. With stopgap measures in place, designed as much to sustain the zombie illusion as anything else, it becomes harder and harder for legislators to tap into the political will for painful but essential remedies.
So far all the government is doing is looking like the same thing Japan did…throw money at institutions that are already dead. I think the American people are starting to realize the fact that these institutions are dead and it is time to let them be buried. It is costing way too much to keep practicing the “voodoo” of economics trying to secure something that cannot be.